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Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Areas affected...northern WI into Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281749Z - 281915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may produce hail and locally strong gusts
this afternoon. A watch may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting to develop ahead of a cold
front across Upper MI this afternoon. This activity is expected to
continue developing along the front into northern WI soon. Ahead of
the front, some cloud cover and showers have persisted across parts
of central WI and temperatures have only warmed into the mid/upper
60s. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft are supporting midlevel
lapse rates around 7 C/km atop modest boundary-layer moisture
(dewpoints in the 50s). As a result, weak destabilization is
occurring early this afternoon, with recent mesoanalysis indicating
around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating should allow for some
increase in stability, amid effective shear around 30-35 kt,
resulting in organized cells. Small, but curved low-level hodographs
beco*ing elongated and straight above 3 km suggest rotating cells
capable of producing hail will be possible. Forecast soundings also
show a rather deeply-mixed boundary-layer. This could foster some
locally strong/damaging wind gusts as well. A severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed for portions of the MCD area in the next hour or
so.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46608957 46498763 45998708 45438717 44978785 44388939
            44279127 44369212 44569254 44729280 45159277 45449269
            45969230 46279162 46608957