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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over a portion of
the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.  Isolated to widely
scattered severe gusts may acco*pany thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough initially over southern Saskatchewan
early this morning will quickly move southeast and reach northern WI
by early evening.  An attendant cold front will push southeastward
across the Upper Midwest during the period and focus thunderstorm
development this afternoon/evening.  Model guidance indicates a
marginally moist boundary layer (upper 50s to near 60 deg F surface
dewpoints) will destabilize during the day beneath seasonably cool
mid-level temperatures (-14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb).  Model guidance
is in fairly good agreement in indicating storms developing by the
mid afternoon over northwest WI and perhaps extending westward into
eastern MN.  A mix of supercells and organized multicells early in
the convective cycle (due to adequate CAPE/shear) will probably
evolve into a band of storms as it pushes southeastward during the
evening across WI.  Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary
severe hazards.  The severe risk will likely wane by mid-late
evening as buoyancy lessens.

...Northern Rockies into adjacent plains...
A mid-level low initially off the WA/Vancouver coast will move east
as a ridge shifts eastward from the northern High Plains to the
MT/Dakotas border by daybreak Wednesday.  In response to an
approaching 500-mb speed max, weak low pressure will develop in lee
of the Rockies during the day.  Increasing large-scale ascent and
orographic lift will likely lead to thunderstorms developing over
the higher terrain of ID/southwest MT by mid afternoon.  Forecast
soundings show inverted-v profiles with strengthening southwesterly
mid-level flow.  High-based storms will likely move into the plains
with outflow-dominant storms capable of severe gusts.  This activity
will likely spread east into central MT during the evening before
the risk for gusts beco*es more limited by late evening.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 06/28/2022