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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for organized severe thunderstorms is not expected today.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a surface cold
front, extending from New England to central Texas, drifts southward
through the day. Meanwhile, upper ridging will prevail across the
western half of the CONUS while a second mid-level trough impinges
on the West Coast. Isolated to potentially scattered pulse cellular
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the cold front in a
weak shear environment as insolation destabilizes the boundary
layer. A strong/damaging gust or two may acco*pany the stronger
downdrafts, but the severe coverage should be too sparse to warrant
any severe highlights this outlook.

Meanwhile, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of
the interior west into the northern Plains in association with the
upper ridge. By afternoon peak heating, high-based thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A stronger downdraft core may support a
damaging wind gust or two, but the lack of stronger flow aloft/shear
in the Southwest suggests that the overall severe threat should
remain limited. Across central South Dakota, some of the latest
guidance depicts inverted-v soundings typical for dry thunderstorms.
7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a well-mixed boundary layer in
the presence of modest speed/directional shear could also support a
sparse damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/27/2022