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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to
the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona.

...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from
eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA.  A corridor of rich
low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast.  Winds
aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak.  This, co*bined
with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the
overall severe threat quite limited.  However, the potential exists
for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally
damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area.  This threat
should diminish quickly after sunset.  Refer to MCD #1296 for
short-term details on parts of the area.

...AZ...
Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately
unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. 
Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered
high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind
gusts.  Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022