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Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Areas affected...Extreme southeast Iowa...northeast
Missouri...central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 260016Z - 260145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts
and isolated large hail continues across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Regional co*posite radar data as of 0005z shows a line
of strong thunderstorms from just south of the Quad Cities southwest
into Clark County in extreme northeast MO. The storms were
developing along a cold front and were moving east/southeast along a
gradient in MLCAPE, with between 2000 and 3500 J/kg in place in the
vicinity of these storms. Farther south, an isolated thunderstorm
had developed within a confluence zone over Montgomery County, MO.
Westerly midlevel flow was contributing to around 35-40 kts of
deep-layer shear as sampled by the KDVN 21z special sounding, and
this is sufficient for organized storms, initially including
supercell structures posing a risk for damaging winds and isolated
large hail. Expectations are for additional development to occur
along the cold front into northeast MO over the next few hours, with
a line of storms moving southeast across the watch area this
evening. An increase in the damaging wind risk is expected as this
occurs.

..Bunting.. 06/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40639172 41429056 41588991 41558905 41318856 40358832
            39358852 38818894 38669008 38609054 38689123 38889178
            39259204 39689221 40419223 40639172