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Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into far western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252215Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few microbursts may acco*pany the stronger storms, with
an isolated severe gust possible. A WW issuance is not expected
given the very isolated extent of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A hot and unstable airmass has developed near a
stationary surface cold front, where storms have been gradually
increasing in coverage and intensity over the past few hours. On
both sides of the front, a deep, dry boundary layer extending up to
700-500 mb has supported the development of 9+ C/km 0-3 km lapse
rates. While tropospheric winds are weak, ample potential for
evaporative cooling in the deep and dry boundary layer is fostering
over 1500 J/kg DCAPE. As such, dry, high-based thunderstorms that
can manage to develop heavier precipitation cores may support an
isolated severe gust, and a 75+ mph gust cannot be co*pletely ruled
out should a more formidable microburst develop. Nonetheless, the
severe threat is expected to remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not
expected.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34590289 34880324 35090332 35240326 35410313 35490297
            35470213 35620118 35990009 36229900 36149816 35559861
            35079957 34710033 34470130 34430205 34590289