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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of far northern Alabama into
the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and evening,
posing at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...

The broad subtropical ridge across the eastern United States will
flatten on Sunday as a short-wave trough moves across southern
Canada. This trough will drive a cooler, drier airmass south across
the eastern US. Convergence along and near the leading edge of this
airmass will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms anywhere
from the southern High Plains northeast into the eastern Great
Lakes. 

Despite surface dewpoints around 70 F along and ahead of the surface
cold front, poor mid-level lapse rates should limit CAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Additionally, the stronger mid-level flow should
remain across Canada, limiting both deep-layer and effective-layer
shear. This co*bination of seasonally-poor instability and weak
effective-layer shear should limit the synoptically-driven severe
threat. However, precipitable water values approaching 2" along and
ahead of the front may result in a storm-scale driven wet
microbursts from water loading of the updrafts. The most likely area
for this appears to be from northeast Alabama into western New York,
and a marginal risk is maintained/expanded for this potential.

..Marsh.. 06/25/2022