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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN IL AND ADJACENT AREAS OF IA/MO...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this
afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and
extreme northeast Missouri.

...Northern IL/southeast IA to KS/OK through late evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will move
generally eastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes,
around the northern periphery of the midlevel high over the southern
Plains.  A surface cyclone will precede the midlevel trough across
western ON to James Bay, and a trailing cold front will move
southeastward across the upper MS Valley and the central Plains
through tonight.  An MCV may emerge from the ongoing warm advection
storms across IA, and the MCV will move over southern WI/northern IL
toward southwest Lower MI by late afternoon/evening.  Clouds and
rain-cooled air with the IA convection will tend to limit the
northeast extent of substantial destabilization today to IL and
southwestward along the front to KS/OK.

On the southern fringe of the morning convection and the
larger-scale trough approaching the upper MS Valley, strong buoyancy
is expected from MO/southeast IA into parts of northern IL. 
Additional convection is expected late this afternoon ahead of the
cold front and along any remaining outflow/differential heating
boundaries from southeast IA into IL.  This area will be near the
southern fringe of the slightly stronger flow aloft, where there is
a better chance for more organized storm clusters capable of
producing damaging outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. 
Farther southwest, hotter temperatures and deeper mixing will
support high-based storms with some downburst potential along the
front into southern KS/northern OK.  The stronger storms near the
front may also pose a marginal hail threat, and elevated convection
may persist overnight to the north of the cold front.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon...
Another afternoon of diurnal convection is expected along a weak
surface boundary drifting westward into AL and the western FL
Panhandle.  Strong surface heating will occur (especially west of
the boundary), and boundary-layer dewpoints along the boundary will
contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon.  Vertical shear will
be weak, but thermodynamic profiles will support some threat for
isolated wind damage with downbursts, mainly this afternoon.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/25/2022