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Mesoscale Discussion 1289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250656Z - 250930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms remain possible from eastern Nebraska
into Iowa, and isolated marginally severe hail or wind may occur.

DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to expand in coverage from
northeast NE into northern IA over the next several hours, in a zone
of positive theta-e advection at 850 mb. With time however, the
low-level jet will veer and focus lift farther east where storms
will be clearly elevated.

00Z soundings show steep lapse rates aloft, which is maximizing
instability with 70s F dewpoints. Drying from the southwest is
forecast (negative theta-e advection at 850 mb) tonight, which may
limit coverage and severity of any isolated cells over eastern NE a
few hours from now.

Given the expected rapid increase in warm advection storms, storm
mode may be co*plex and only favor marginally severe hail as a
result of moderate instability. Otherwise, a conglomeration of
storms could produce locally strong to severe downdrafts as well.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   41089790 42149778 42599739 42949692 43299593 43369447
            43269352 42989284 42899263 42399245 42069264 41859306
            41939370 42039453 41959526 41549598 41259633 41009687
            40899738 40939768 41089790