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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...ADJACENT
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK (STATE)...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the middle and upper Ohio
Valley into the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and
evening, posing at least some risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts.

...Synopsis...
Blocking appears likely to persist within the westerlies across the
northeastern Pacific and adjacent portions of northwestern North
America, with a mid/upper high only slowly shifting north of the
Gulf of Alaska into the southern Alaska/Yukon border vicinity during
this period.  Models do indicate that the prominent low to the
south, initially centered roughly near 40N/145W, may slowly begin
accelerating east-northeastward toward the Pacific Northwest coast,
but the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls is forecast
to remain to the west of coastal areas through 12Z Monday.

Within the northern branch of split downstream flow, models indicate
that at least a couple of more prominent short wave perturbations
will continue to progress through northwesterly to westerly flow
across the Canadian Prairies through the eastern Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity.  This includes a lead wave forecast to advance
across Ontario into Quebec, and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes
region.  While mid/upper ridging may persist across much of the
central and southern tier of the U.S. to the east of the Rockies, a
substantive intrusion of cooler and drier air appears likely to
spread east of the lower Great Lakes, south of the Ohio River, and
through the middle Mississippi Valley and much of the southern Great
Plains by late Sunday night.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Great Lakes region...
Seasonably moist air, coupled with daytime heating, may contribute
to moderately large CAPE (1500-3000 J/kg) in a narrow pre-cold
frontal corridor by Sunday afternoon.  Much of this may be focused
within weak flow beneath the remnant mid-level ridging.  However,
beneath a difluent regime near the southern periphery of the
progressive short wave trough, westerly flow may strengthen to 20-30
kt in the 700-500 mb layer, as far south as portions of the
mid/upper Ohio Valley.  Given the seasonably high boundary-layer
moisture content (including surface dew points forecast around 70F)
and CAPE, this may be marginally sufficient to contribute to
scattered small organizing thunderstorm clusters, which may beco*e
capable of producing potentially damaging wind gusts aided by heavy
precipitation loading, before weakening Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 06/25/2022