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Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast North Dakota into northwest
and west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...409...

Valid 250206Z - 250330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407, 409
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat across the remainder of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 407 and 409 continues, with severe winds the
primary concern. A couple of 75+ mph wind gusts remain possible into
the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A more organized MCS has materialized across eastern
North Dakota over the past few hours, with a history of isolated
damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Within the ongoing MCS,
an embedded bowing segment is rapidly translating southeast while
coinciding with a residual outflow boundary generated by earlier
storms. Given the presence of up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE (driven by a
modestly mixed boundary layer beneath 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates), robust surface-based convection should persist for at least
a few more hours. Despite the presence of 30-45 kts of effective
bulk shear, the axis of the bowing segment is aligned more parallel
to the deep-layer shear vectors, and the ambient 700-500 mb wind
speeds are modest. As such, bowing segments may continue to exert
brief bursts in intensity, and the best chance of a localized
significant wind swath would originate from the MCS bowing segment
along the Cass County ND/Clay County MN line.

..Squitieri.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46699792 47469718 48229619 48449497 48259332 47759288
            47209296 46669332 46189379 45909453 45699525 45729591
            46009671 46699792