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Mesoscale Discussion 1285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...South Dakota...Nebraska...Southwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408...409...

Valid 250147Z - 250345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408, 409
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat will likely
continue over the next few hours, from eastern South Dakota into
north-central Nebraska. The threat is expected to move eastward and
should affect northeast Nebraska and southwestern Minnesota later
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery from central South Dakota
into west-central Nebraska shows a mixed mode of short line segments
and small multicell clusters. These storms are located along the
western edge of a corridor of moderate to strong instability. Along
this corridor, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE generally in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has 0-6 km shear across much
of central South Dakota in the 40 to 50 knot range. This co*bination
of instability and shear should be favorable for supercells with
large hail, and organized multicells capable of wind damage. The
threat in South Dakota should gradually spread eastward across
eastern South Dakota, and could reach parts of southwest Minnesota
later this evening. The development of a linear MCS with a cold pool
will be possible.

Further south into northern and central Nebraska, 0-6 km shear drops
off gradually, with the North Platte WSR-88D VWP showing 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. This should keep the severe threat more
isolated, with wind damage and hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42660116 41880132 41450132 41210114 41150101 41240029
            41509943 42829721 43769625 44559584 45309587 45639676
            45779792 45799940 45629998 45120086 44530104 42660116