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Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern North Dakota into
north-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 242313Z - 250045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 407, with severe winds beco*ing the primary concern as storms
congeal into squall lines. A WW issuance will be needed downstream.

DISCUSSION...c*ld-pool mergers from transient supercell structures
have supported the upscale growth into a semi-organized MCS across
central/eastern North Dakota within the past hour or so, where large
hail, damaging gusts, and a few brief tornadoes have recently
occurred. South-southeast of the ongoing MCS, surface temperatures
around 90F beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing
to 4500 J/kg MLCAPE south of a modified outflow boundary across
west-central MN. With time, this boundary is expected to gradually
mix northward, with the expectation that the MCS will traverse the
associated baroclinic gradient into the evening hours. Enhanced lift
and low-level moisture along this boundary, in tandem with the very
steep, deep-layer lapse rates, may promote an organized severe-wind
threat this evening, including the chance for multiple gusts
exceeding 75 mph. Storms are also increasing in coverage across
south-central ND along the primary cold front, and these may also
contribute to upscale growth/significant severe winds.

Given the high degree of storm organization underway this afternoon,
the severe threat is expected to persist east of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 407 this evening, and a new WW issuance will eventually be
needed across northern into central MN.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46200122 47450081 48339905 48789726 48979578 48899433
            48489369 47769356 46639397 45679461 45649585 45809773
            46200122