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Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Far Southern Montana...North-central and Northeast
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242237Z - 250100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across
parts of north-central and northeast Wyoming into far southern
Montana. But no weather watch is expected because the threat should
remain marginal.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough will continue to approach the
northern High Plains this evening. Ahead of this feature, scattered
thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the central and
northern Rockies. The strongest instability is currently located
across northern Wyoming, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the
500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition RAP forecast soundings have
mid-level lapse rates at 8.0 C/km, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35
to 40 knot range. This should be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat this evening. Hail and marginally severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   44820517 44900592 44980646 45180714 45430809 45460906
            45270950 44830975 44500965 44130915 44130825 44090751
            43500692 43210618 43110554 43140497 43350435 43950405
            44530435 44820517