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Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 242202Z - 250030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to develop across
parts of the central High Plains this evening. But the threat should
be marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
over the central and northern Rockies, with mid-level moisture
concentrated across the central and northern High Plains ahead of
the trough. At the surface, the western edge of a moist airmass is
located from northwest Kansas extending northward into western
Nebraska and western South Dakota. Scattered thunderstorms have
developed ahead of the trough in parts of the central High Plains.
This convection will gradually expand in coverage, moving eastward
into the stronger instability. The RAP suggests that MLCAPE is
generally in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range across much of western
Nebraska and northwest Kansas. This co*bined with 0-6 km shear near
35 kt, evident on the WSR-88D VWP from North Platte, should be
enough for an isolated severe  threat. Hail and a few marginally
severe gusts will be possible this evening.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41740034 41170005 40259999 39000027 38440066 38220118
            38270180 38510224 38950237 39560224 40450219 41090251
            41510317 41890351 42320356 42640335 42880278 42840203
            42500109 41740034