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Mesoscale Discussion 1279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407...

Valid 242046Z - 242245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 407
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts should continue to increase in
likelihood over the next several hours. Storms will have a greater
eastward push as the trough continues eastward into the region. Some
gusts may exceed 75 mph. Large to perhaps very-large hail and a
brief tornado or two are possible with new updrafts along the
boundary.

DISCUSSION...Initially supercellular storms in northeast and central
North Dakota have fairly rapidly grown upscale into a linear co*plex
along the surface warm front. Mid-level lapse rates and shear are
such that newer updrafts may still produce large to very large hail
before merging within the line. Given the current storm mode,
tornadoes--likely brief-- would be most likely along the boundary
where there is pre-existing vorticity. Some potential exists for
more discrete development to occur within south-central North Dakota
later this afternoon as mid-level ascent increases. However, as the
trough swings through the region later this afternoon into tonight,
this should also foster enough storm coverage and cold pool
interactions that discrete storms will not persist for very long.
Further, the advancement of trough will also help push the cold
front east. This will allow these linear storms to move into larger
buoyancy in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Wind
damage potential, including gusts in excess of 75 mph, will be on
the increase over the next several hours in WW 407.

..Wendt.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   46640133 47480039 48599788 48839716 48719583 47819509
            47189516 46459622 46239839 46140023 46290117 46640133