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Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 241816Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Initially supercellular storms will be capable of all
severe hazards, including tornadoes. A transition to a more linear
mode will occur with time and severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) will
be possible. A watch is likely within the next 1-1.5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is evident within northeast North
Dakota and, to a lesser extent, in south-central North Dakota on
visible satellite. These observational trends and model trends
within the HRRR would suggest that storm initiation is possible
within the next 1-2 hours. Initial storms will likely be
supercellular and capable of large/very-large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado or two. Low-level hodographs are not particularly
large and the low-level jet will not increase until storm mode will
be more linear. Nevertheless, an area of northeast North Dakota with
more backed surface flow would be the likely area of greater tornado
risk. The 18Z observed BIS sounding sampled mid-level lapse rates
near 9 C/km with a a long, straight hodograph. Storms will likely
intensify quickly as they develop. With time, storms are expected to
grow upscale into one or more linear segments which would mean a
greater wind damage threat (including potential for 75+ mph winds).
A watch will likely be needed within the next 1-1.5 hours.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46820098 47899968 48949777 48659664 48099625 47429645
            46069865 45850018 46030093 46330099 46820098