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Topic: SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (Read 68 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[html]Day 4-8 Outlook
     
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Following an intrusion of cooler low-level air to the east of the
Rockies, along with at least some suppression of mid-level ridging
that may persist into early next week, models suggest that the
mid-level ridging will at least attempt to rebuild across the
central and southern tier of the U.S. into the middle to latter
portion of next week.  It appears that this will occur as a deep
mid-level low emerging from the northeastern Canadian Arctic
latitudes turns southward and southeastward across the Hudson Bay
vicinity.  At the same time, upstream flow may remain split around
persist ridging near/inland the Canadian Pacific coast and troughing
near or offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. 

Models do indicate that at least one significant perturbation will
emerge from the offshore troughing and progress inland of the
Pacific Northwest coast early next week, before accelerating
eastward and beco*ing increasingly deformed within a confluent
regime near the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity.  While this impulse
could contribute to convective development across parts of the
northern intermountain region and Rockies next Tuesday, it seems
that severe weather potential may be limited by the lack of more
substantive moisture return.  Farther east, a plume of elevated
mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, coupled with
moistening low-level return flow, may contribute to increasing
potential instability across parts of the northern Great Plains into
the Upper Midwest during the middle to latter portion of next week.
While this regime may beco*e conditionally supportive of severe
thunderstorms, including organized thunderstorm clusters, the
predictability of this development remains low at this extended time
frame.


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Source: SPC Jun 24, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)