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Topic: SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (Read 60 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
     
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the
middle Mississippi Valley into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity late Saturday afternoon and evening, with a few posing at
least some risk for severe wind and hail.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that an increasingly blocked regime centered roughly
over the northeastern Pacific will evolve by early this weekend,
with a mid-level low (centered near 40N/145W) still more prominent
than the mid-level high (centered near the Gulf of Alaska) on
Saturday.  Within the northern branch of the split downstream flow,
at least a couple of substantive short wave perturbations are
forecast to progress through northwesterly to westerly flow, around
the southwestern periphery of an elongated vortex centered east
through north of Hudson Bay.

This includes one trough forecast to shift eastward across Manitoba,
northwestern Ontario, and adjacent portions of the northern Great
Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, providing support for a
deepening surface cyclone migrating across northwestern Ontario
through the James Bay vicinity by 12Z Sunday.  In the wake of this
impulse, cool surface ridging appears likely to build southeastward
to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies.  Preceding the leading edge
of the cooler and drier air, a co*bination of conglomerate
convective outflow and a weak surface cold front may initially
extend across the upper Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and
central Great Plains by early Saturday, before advancing
southeastward through the Great Lakes, middle Mississippi Valley,
and central into southern Great Plains through the period.

While the leading edge of the cooler near-surface air advances
relatively far south through the Great Plains and middle Mississippi
Valley, models indicate that mid/upper ridging will generally be
maintained across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S.
Highest mid-level heights are forecast to linger across the southern
Great Plains and mid/lower Mississippi Valley, with weak embedded
troughing centered over the southern Sierra Nevada and offshore of
the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Middle Mississippi Valley into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Models suggest that the more appreciable probabilities for
thunderstorm development will be largely focused within the milder,
but as moist (or more across the Great Plains) post-initial
outflow/weak surface front regime advancing southward across the
region.  Although areas northeast of the Missouri River into the
Upper Midwest will be closest to the modest (30-40 kt around 500 mb)
southern fringe of the westerlies, stronger boundary-layer
destabilization may be confined to areas within weaker flow beneath
the warm mid-level ridging.

Mid/upper forcing for ascent to support thunderstorm initiation also
remains unclear, and may be mostly in association with weak
perturbations migrating within the monsoonal regime around the
western periphery of the mid-level high.  However, it is possible
that subtle forcing and perhaps somewhat enhanced shear could
contribute to scattered areas of slowly organizing thunderstorm
development, near and southwest of the southern fringe of the
cyclonic mid-level flow associated with the troughing, late Saturday
afternoon and evening.  With models indicating that a plume of
steeper mid-level lapse may contribute to moderate to large CAPE,
some of this convection may beco*e capable of producing severe hail
and strong surface gusts near and after peak thunderstorm intensity.

..Kerr.. 06/24/2022


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Source: SPC Jun 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html)