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Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240307Z - 240500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail may acco*pany a more
persistent supercell updraft along the U.S./Canada border over the
next couple of hours. A WW issuance is unlikely given the very
localized nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...While a couple of left-moving transient supercells have
been traversing northern ND in the past few hours (perhaps with
marginally severe hail per MRMS-MESH mosaic radar data), a more
robust supercell updraft has recently developed just north of the
SD/MB border near Cavalier County, ND. Despite the onset of
nocturnal cooling, the BIS and INL 00z observed soundings and 02Z
mesoanalysis suggest that 7.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates persist
across much of the northern Plains, contributing to near 2000 J/kg
MUCAPE and supporting a modest large hail threat. In addition,
nearly 40 kts of effective bulk shear is present along the
international border, which also favors an organized storm mode.  It
is unclear if this supercell will drift into the U.S. over the next
couple of hours. Should this storm do so, large hail may occur,
mainly for far eastern Cavalier into Pembina Counties in ND and
Kittson County, MN in the near term. Given the spatially confined
corridor of a limited, conditional large hail threat, a WW issuance
is not expected.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48829868 49049844 49189778 49159689 49049640 48799634
            48589656 48489680 48569767 48679831 48829868