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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...AND PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across
ongoing risk areas, particularly over parts of the central Great
Plains and central portions of Minnesota to South Dakota.

...South Dakota to Minnesota vicinity...
Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing at this time from northeastern
Minnesota southwestward into northern South Dakota.  The storms are
occurring within a moderately unstable airmass in the vicinity of a
surface boundary extending northeastward from a low analyzed over
central South Dakota.

A modest/nocturnal increase in low-level southerly flow is forecast
across this area, which should sustain storms -- and local severe
risk -- for several more hours, before an eventual/gradual decrease
in storm coverage expected overnight.

...North-central Kansas vicinity...
Storms continue across portions of northern Kansas at this time,
near a warm-frontal zone draped across this area.  While moderate
instability will allow storms to persist over the next few hours, a
well-developed supercell which earlier crossed Lincoln/northern
Ellsworth counties and produced a couple of tornadoes has since
diminished.  Still, isolated severe storms -- primarily capable of
producing large hail and locally strong wind gusts, will remain
possible over the next few hours.

...Portions of central and eastern Montana...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central
and eastern Montana, near a surface cold front slowly crossing the
area.  Weak/high-based instability remains in the vicinity of the
boundary, but loss of daytime heating should result in gradual
decrease in convective coverage/intensity beginning over the next
couple of hours.  Until then, evaporatively aided surface wind gusts
near severe levels will remain possible.

...Eastern Nevada into Utah and southwestern Wyoming...
Isolated/high-based thunderstorms continue at this hour near and
just ahead of the upper low now over western portions of Nevada per
the latest water-vapor loop.  While gusty winds remain possible with
a couple of the strongest storms -- particularly over northeastern
Utah and into southwestern Wyoming where some convective
clustering/upscale growth has occurred, convection will begin
diminishing in coverage and intensity a bit later this evening in
tandem with the loss of daytime heating.

..Goss.. 06/24/2022