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Mesoscale Discussion 1270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...ast-central South Dakota...Central and Northern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240015Z - 240245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across parts of
east-central South Dakota southward into central Nebraska. Wind
damage and hail would be the primary threats. The severe potential
appears marginal and weather watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
trough in the western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is
analyzed over central South Dakota, with a moist airmass is in place
to the east and north of the low. Isolated convection is ongoing to
the north of the low east of Mobridge. Surface dewpoints are
generally in the mid 60s F along the instability axis, where the RAP
has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This co*bined with
large-scale ascent associated with the subtle shortwave trough will
support continued isolated thunderstorm development this evening. A
storm or two could also develop along a dryline southward into
north-central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from central South
Dakota into north-central Nebraska have 0-6 km shear around 35
knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates are generally in the 7.5 to 8.0
C/km range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts
and hail.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45780014 45939959 45959902 45859852 45539817 45149821
            44509854 43889878 43049879 42359898 41779957 41380017
            41280050 41360093 41550119 41810122 42170108 42630088
            43470068 44240063 44870062 45280053 45550038 45780014