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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes are possible across the northern and central
Plains and Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern
Rockies/High Plains on Friday. In advance of this feature, a lead
shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin toward the central
Rockies and eventually the central Plains. One surface cyclone is
forecast to gradually deepen across the northern Plains, as a warm
front moves northward across the Dakotas/western MN. Another surface
cyclone is forecast to develop across the central Plains, in
association with the lead shortwave trough. To the east, an upper
trough will remain across the western Atlantic, with weak northerly
midlevel flow persisting over portions of the Southeast. 

...Central/eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Strong instability is expected to develop Friday afternoon,
primarily along and south of the warm front moving northward through
the Dakotas and western MN. Scattered thunderstorm development is
expected by mid/late afternoon near the warm front, and also along a
surface trough that will be moving from the western into central
Dakotas. Stronger midlevel flow will remain to the west for much of
the day, but a modestly veering wind profile will support organized
multicell clusters across the warm sector, and perhaps a supercell
or two near the warm front, where low-level flow will be locally
backed. Large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support
an initial large hail threat, and a couple of tornadoes will also be
possible with any sustained supercell development near the warm
frontal zone. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible
initially, with any upscale growth capable of a somewhat more
organized severe wind threat by late afternoon/early evening. 

The magnitude of instability will support at least an isolated
threat of significant wind gusts (75 mph or greater), and higher
wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence regarding
the development of one or more organized clusters increases. 

...NE/IA/northern KS...
In the wake of morning convection, an effective warm front may
develop across northern KS/southern NE, in response to modifying
outflow and the gradually deepening surface low across western KS.
Most guidance suggests that a modest low-level jet will remain
focused across this area through the day, and at least isolated
thunderstorm development is possible near and north of this boundary
by late afternoon, as diurnal heating promotes strong
destabilization and weakening MLCINH. A favorable environment for
supercells is expected near the boundary, where low-level flow will
be locally backed, and any sustained surface-based cells would pose
a conditional risk of all severe hazards. This scenario remains
rather uncertain, and will depend on mesoscale factors related to
the evolution of early-day convection and the coverage/magnitude of
attendant outflow.

During the evening, a strengthening low-level jet will promote an
increase in storm coverage north of the boundary, which would likely
be somewhat elevated, but still pose some threat for severe
wind/hail. Additionally, one or more storm clusters may spread into
the region from the High Plains by late evening, with at least an
isolated wind/hail threat. 

...Northern/central High Plains...
Strong heating/mixing and ascent attendant to the approaching
mid/upper-level trough will support scattered high-based
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon from northeast CO/eastern
WY into western NE/SD. Deep-layer shear will support a few organized
clusters and/or marginal supercells, with a corresponding risk of
isolated hail and severe gusts.  

...Southern GA into the FL Peninsula...
While midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will be quite weak across
most of the Southeast, PW increasing to near/above 2 inches and
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg) will support a
threat of isolated wet microbursts in association with robust storm
development from southern GA into the FL Peninsula during the
afternoon.

..Dean.. 06/23/2022