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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening.  Large hail
and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger
storms.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will reside over the northwestern and northeastern
portions of the country today, while ridging continues to dominate
across a large portion of the remainder of the country.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift eastward across
the northwestern quarter of the country.  Meanwhile, a weak front
will arc from the southeastern U.S. westward across the central Gulf
Coast region, and then northwestward into the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
Scattered to isolated thunderstorm redevelopment is forecast across
the central Plains this afternoon, as diurnal
heating/destabilization occur in the vicinity of a remnant/weak warm
front shifting northward across the area.  Aided by a belt of
moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level flow associated with a weak vort
max progged to shift across the area during the afternoon, a few
stronger storms will likely evolve.  As such, risk for hail and a
few strong/damaging gusts is apparent, with risk forecast to
gradually wane after sunset.

...North-central states...
As a series of subtle mid-level cyclonic disturbances cross the
northern plains, within a belt of moderate westerlies on the north
side of the prevailing upper ridge, isolated to scattered/primarily
diurnal convection is expected across the north-central CONUS.  In
conjunction with moderate destabilization, flow aloft will likely
prove sufficient to allow a couple of stronger storms to evolve,
acco*panied by locally strong/gusty winds during the afternoon and
evening hours.

...Central Montana...
Weak afternoon destabilization is forecast ahead of a cold front
forecast to shift across central Montana during the afternoon,
modulated by scant (40s dewpoints) low-level moisture.  Still,
isolated high-based storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon, as mid-level height falls spread across the region ahead
of the slowly advancing short-wave trough.  

Given potential for sub-cloud evaporation, and enhanced mid-level
flow promoting rather fast-moving storms, a few stronger wind gusts
are expected during the afternoon and early evening time frame.

...Great Basin...
An upper low initially over California will gradually devolve into
an open wave, as it shifts into Nevada through the day.  As an
associated zone of subtle cooling aloft spreads eastward across
Nevada/Utah, atop a diurnally heating boundary layer,
weak/high-based instability  will evolve, fostering development of
showers and thunderstorms across the area.  Given the deep mixed
layer, a few evaporatively aided stronger gusts can be expected
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

..Goss/Wendt.. 06/23/2022