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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible across the Middle/Lower Missouri
Valley Friday evening and overnight, and southern Georgia and
northern Florida Friday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A pair of phased shortwave troughs are expected over the northwest
CONUS/southwest Canada early Friday morning. The southernmost
shortwave will begin the period over the Great Basin before
progressing eastward through the central High Plains. The
northernmost shortwave is expected to rotate through the base of
maturing mid-latitude cyclone, moving across MT into the northern
Plains.

A surface low associated with the northern shortwave is expected to
deepen across ND as it progresses northeastward towards the southern
Manitoba/Ontario border. At it does, a cold front attendant to this
low will sweep eastward/southeastward across the northern Pains into
the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Another surface low is
forecast to begin the day over northwest KS before moving eastward
into the Mid MO Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will likely be in place across the
region ahead of the approaching front. The low-level moisture
co*bined with moderate daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse
rates will result in robust buoyancy. As a result, thunderstorms
with strong updrafts capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop along the front, as well as along a preceding
pre-frontal trough. The stronger shear will be displaced west of the
front, and a predominantly multicellular/clustered, outflow-dominant
storm mode is anticipated.  

...Northern/Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the
southern shortwave discussed in the synopsis. A few strong wind
gusts are possible as these storms move across eastern WY and
adjacent portions of western SD and the NE Panhandle.

...Mid/Lower MO Valley...
A strengthening low-level jet Friday evening will contribute to
strong warm-air advection to the north and east of the KS surface
low as it moves eastward. Ample moisture and steep lapse rates will
support robust buoyancy amid this warm-air advection. Elevated
thunderstorms are expected within this environment across eastern
NE, western IA, and northwest MO. A few of these storms could be
severe, with hail as the primary threat.

...Southern GA...Northern/Central FL...FL Panhandle...
A moist and very warm air mass is expected to be in place across
Southern GA/FL Panhandle and into northern/central FL on Friday
afternoon. Surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
dewpoints in the mid 70s will result in robust buoyancy. Vertical
shear will be very weak, leading to an outflow-dominant storm mode.
A few damaging wind gusts resulting from water-loaded downdrafts are
possible.

..Mosier.. 06/23/2022