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SPC MD 1252

SPC MD 1252

[html]MD 1252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
       
MD 1252 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...southeastern Indiana across much of Ohio...northern
Kentucky...and into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 221824Z - 222000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected along a cold
front this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cumulus field has developed ahead of a cold front
across the Ohio Valley. SPC mesoanalysis suggests ML CINH has eroded
and towering cumulus have started to develop. The airmass in this
region is very unstable with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and mid-level
lapse rates around 7 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis. Convergence is quite
weak along the front which may limit overall storm coverage and
shear is very weak in the area (less than 20 knots) which should
limit storm organization. However, the instability may still support
strong to severe storms capable of damaging downbursts. Therefore, a
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this afternoon.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   38558518 38428644 38628722 39118705 39588624 40438326
            41478087 41887985 41927938 41887897 41817867 41477870
            40817890 39428020 38798206 38658386 38558518


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Source: SPC MD 1252 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1252.html)