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Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 221716Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of damaging gusts and
marginal hail will increase across central PA between 18-20Z. Watch
issuance is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As filtered diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
(middle/upper 60s dewpoints) continues beneath modest midlevel lapse
rates (per PIT/IAD 12Z soundings), moderate to strong surface-based
buoyancy will develop during the next couple hours over central PA.
While the stronger instability is expected over western PA owing to
deeper boundary-layer mixing amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints,
regional VWP data shows the stronger midlevel flow confined to
east-central PA. As convergence along an approaching cold front from
the east strengthens, convection should increase in
intensity/coverage between 18-20Z. The moderate/strong buoyancy
co*bined with 30-40 kt of effective shear will support embedded
organized updrafts in a larger precipitation field. Locally damaging
gusts are the main concern with any organized clusters that develop
and track southward through the afternoon, while isolated large hail
and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out owing to modest low-level
hodograph curvature. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41957666 41667642 40867655 40247674 39767693 39707751
            39777810 40147832 40727835 41637818 41937794 42037745
            41957666