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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Great Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.  Large
hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger
storms.

...Central Plains...
An upper ridge will be centered over the Red River Valley.  A weak
mid-level disturbance will likely traverse the northern periphery of
this upper ridge, moving from the central Rockies eastward across
the central Plains with an attendant surface low over the central
Great Plains. 

Upper flow will be modest, but surface winds will be
southerly/southeasterly, resulting in veering wind profiles and
moderate vertical shear, especially northeast of the area of low
pressure.  Organized multicells and clusters will be the favored
convective mode but a few short-lived supercells are possible where
shear is stronger over north-central KS into southern NE. Large
temperature-dewpoint depressions will favor gusty outflow winds with
the stronger cores in the more deeply mixed environment, primarily
in areas south of the moist axis which will be centered over
north-central KS/southern NE.  In the area of richer low-level
moisture, large hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible.  A
couple of small clusters will likely evolve during the evening with
this activity likely subsiding by late evening.

...Northern High Plains...
Given the presence of the expansive upper ridging over the southern
CONUS, any stronger westerly flow aloft will be displaced north to
the international border vicinity.  A shortwave trough embedded
within this stronger flow is forecast to move from British Columbia
into Saskatchewan.  Enhanced southwesterly flow throughout the base
of this shortwave should expand across the northern Rockies.  Modest
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture coincident with
this increasing mid-level flow could support a few strong
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.  Isolated hail is
possible as well.

...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest...
Strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon as a
result of ample low-level moisture, strong daytime heating, and
relatively cool temperatures aloft. A subtle shortwave trough may
impinge upon this air mass, creating enough lift for isolated
thunderstorms. Given the robust buoyancy, a conditional risk for
damaging wind gusts and/or hail will exist. 

...Great Basin...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of a mid-level
shortwave trough forecast to move from the Sierra Nevada during the
late afternoon to the NV/UT border by daybreak Friday.  Strong
heating amidst cloud breaks and steep 0-3 km lapse rates (9.5
deg/km) will support the potential for severe microbursts.  Isolated
gusts 60-70 mph are possible with the stronger downdrafts.  The
storm activity will initially favor NV but it is expected to expand
eastward into parts of northwest UT during the evening.

..Smith.. 06/22/2022