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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on latest hi-res guidance. Recent advected precipitable
water data shows the plume of monsoonal moisture currently over CA
and AZ gradually moving northwest into southern NV. Even on the
periphery of the deeper moisture, convection is currently producing
a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms across southern CA. This is
likely an indicator for tomorrow as the moisture plume overspreads
NV and yields a similar thermodynamic environment as today's event
over CA. Latest guidance supports this idea with a modest QPF signal
noted across parts of central to eastern NV within a low PWAT
environment. While the coverage of thunderstorms may be scattered at
times, an isolated dry thunderstorm risk remains appropriate given
the expected wet/dry mix and receptive fuels. Strong downburst winds
are possible across eastern NV into southwest UT, which may impact
ongoing fires (see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook for
additional details).

..Moore.. 06/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist in the Plains and Midwest on
Thursday. Farther west, the subtle shortwave trough in central
California will move northeastward through central Nevada/western
Utah. This feature will phase with a broader trough that will swing
through the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.

...Great Basin...
The upper-level ridge will continue to push mid-level moisture into
the region. The timing of the mid-level shortwave trough will be
favorable for widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms from the
Sierra into east-central Nevada and adjacent west-central Utah.
Storms farther west have a greater potential for being a mix of wet
and dry storms as mid/upper-level winds will be weaker within the
weakening closed low. Storms within eastern Nevada are more likely
to be on the dry side of the spectrum due to the modestly stronger
flow aloft ahead of the subtle trough. Fuel information from GBCC
shows that there are critically dry fuels in southern Nevada that
transitions to less receptive fuels in east-central/northeast
Nevada. Scattered dry thunderstorms appear that they will have only
small overlap with critically dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...