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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible this
afternoon/evening from central Pennsylvania into Virginia, and
westward into the upper Ohio Valley.  Isolated downbursts and
marginally severe hail may occur along the Kansas/Oklahoma border
this evening, and isolated damaging downbursts will be possible
through this evening across parts of southern/central California.

...Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A closed low off the southeast New England coast will drift
westward, while a separate shortwave trough in the westerlies moves
from the upper Great Lakes toward the lower Great Lakes.  The Great
Lakes shortwave trough will be acco*panied by a surface cold front
that will move southeastward into the upper OH Valley later this
afternoon/evening.  Farther east, a north-south front will extend
from eastern VA into central PA, with strong surface heating
expected west of this north-south front and in advance of the upper
OH Valley cold front.  There will also be some increase in low-level
moisture during the day across the OH Valley into western/central
PA, as well as along the stalled front into VA.  The net result will
be a corridor of moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE from 1500 J/kg
along the Mid-Atlantic stalled front to nearly 3000 J/kg along the
OH Valley cold front.

Northwesterly to northerly midlevel flow on the west side of the
closed low will favor southward-moving clusters by early afternoon
from central PA into VA, along and west of the stalled north-south
front (with a cooler marine layer to the east of the front). 
Slightly longer hodographs and a little larger low-level hodograph
curvature (associated with weak warm advection) will be present
along the north-south front, where there will be some potential for
embedded/transient supercell structures.  However, multicell
clusters should be the dominant storm mode, with a primary threat
for damaging outflow gusts as clusters spread southward into an
environment with weaker buoyancy and steeper low-level lapse rates
with southward extent.

Multicell storm clusters are also expected along the cold front into
the upper OH Valley by mid-late afternoon.  Vertical shear will be
weak over the upper OH Valley, but large CAPE/DCAPE will favor
damaging outflow gusts with multicell clusters through the afternoon
into late evening.

...Southern/central CA through this evening...
A plume of low-midlevel moisture and weak ascent will continue to
spread north-northwestward from southern CA into the San Joaquin
Valley, around the eastern periphery of a midlevel low just off the
central CA coast.  Some convection is ongoing in the moisture plume,
and pockets of surface heating/mixing in cloud breaks will
contribute to deep inverted-v profiles.  Buoyancy (MLCAPE near 500
J/kg) will be sufficient for substantial updrafts and precipitation
loading to realize the downburst potential in the environment of
steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg.  Thus,
isolated damaging gusts will be possible, mainly later today into
this evening from the higher terrain in southern CA northward into
the San Joaquin Valley.

...KS/OK border late this afternoon/evening...
A surface cold front in KS, reinforced by outflow with convection
overnight, will tend to stall near the OK/KS border by this
afternoon.  This area will be along the northwest periphery of the
midlevel high over the southern Plains, and on the southern
periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume emanating from NM.  Though
forcing for ascent will be weak, strong surface heating and deep
mixing impinging on the front could support thunderstorm development
late this afternoon into this evening.  Despite some weak
enhancement to the hodographs on the cool side of the boundary,
vertical shear will largely remain weak, with multicell clusters the
expected convective mode.  MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg and DCAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts,
and perhaps marginally severe hail for a few hours this evening.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/22/2022