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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN NE
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS...

CORRECTED FOR MISSING 5% HAIL AREA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, include
tornadoes, are possible across portions of the central Plains
Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the
northern High Plains, and Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains...
Upper ridging is forecast to be centered over the southern Plains
early Thursday morning. This upper ridge, which will extend across
much of the southern third of the CONUS, is expected to remain
largely in place throughout the period. A subtle shortwave trough
will likely traverse the northern periphery of this upper ridge,
moving from the central Rockies eastward across the central Plains
throughout the period. An associated surface low should move
eastward just ahead of this shortwave. Ascent attendant to the
shortwave co*bined with low-level convergence in the vicinity of
this surface low and strong buoyancy will likely result thunderstorm
development. 

Upper flow will be modest, but surface winds will be
southerly/southeasterly, resulting in veering wind profiles and
moderate vertical shear. This shear should be sufficient for storm
organization and at least few strong to severe storms. Given the
high-based character of most storms, the primary severe risk is
strong wind gusts. More favorable low-level moisture will be in
place with eastern extent, amid moderate southeasterly surface
winds. As such, any mature surface-based storms that persist into
this environment could produce tornadoes.

...Northern High Plains...
Given the presence of the expansive upper ridging over the southern
CONUS, any stronger westerly flow aloft will be displaced north to
the international border vicinity. A shortwave trough embedded
within this stronger flow is forecast to move from British Columbia
into Saskatchewan. Enhanced southwesterly flow throughout the base 
of this shortwave should expand across the northern Rockies. Modest
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture coincident with
this increasing mid-level flow could support a few strong
thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail is
possible as well.

...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest...
Strong buoyancy is expected to develop Thursday afternoon as a
result of ample low-level moisture, strong daytime heating, and
relatively cool temperatures aloft. A subtle shortwave trough may
impinge upon this air mass, creating enough lift for isolated
thunderstorms. Given the robust buoyancy, a conditional risk for
damaging wind gusts and/or hail will exist. 

...Great Basin...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated across the Great
Basin as mid-level moisture and ascent both increase ahead of an
upper low moving into the region. Thunderstorm strength will likely
be tempered by modest buoyancy and shear, but high storm bases could
still result in a strong wind gust or two. Coverage is currently
expected to remain below 5%.

..Mosier.. 06/22/2022