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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area is introduced for portions of
southern California. 12 UTC soundings from the region sampled very
dry air within the lowest 3 km. This dry air is expected to remain
in place over the next 24 hours as mid-level moisture improves via a
monsoonal moisture surge from the south. Thunderstorm chances will
increase late tonight (likely after 09 UTC) and spread from south to
north towards central CA as the upper disturbance off the coast
moves onshore. Morning ensemble guidance has a light QPF signal
across this region during the 09-12 UTC time frame, and
corresponding forecast soundings show adequate instability (250-500
J/kg MUCAPE) atop the dry low-level air mass. While PWAT values will
be somewhat elevated, the potential for dry lightning strikes
appears sufficiently high to introduce a risk area.

Wind-driven fire weather concerns remain low. Localized elevated (to
perhaps briefly critical) fire weather conditions are possible
within the San Gabriel to San Bernardino mountains in southern CA,
as well as across parts of northwest AZ. However, this activity will
most likely remain fairly limited spatially and temporally.

..Moore.. 06/21/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will be present across a wide swath of the lower
48 today. A cutoff low off the California coast will aid in
mid-level moisture return late in forecast period. The overall fire
weather risk is expected to remain low as weak surface winds are
expected across the areas with the driest fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...