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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible
from the upper Great Lakes to the central Plains late this
afternoon/evening.

...Upper Great Lakes to the central Plains this evening...
No changes to the previous outlook.  A midlevel shortwave trough
over the northern Plains will move generally eastward toward the
upper Great Lakes, around the northern periphery of a closed
midlevel high over the mid MS Valley.  There will be some
suppression of midlevel heights across the Great Lakes, but the
majority of the height falls and stronger midlevel flow will be
displaced to the cool side of an associated surface cold front that
will move southeastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes.  This
will leave weak forcing for ascent and weak vertical shear in the
warm sector this afternoon.

A corridor of boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 70s will be
maintained immediately ahead of the cold front, where strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg) is expected with daytime heating
beneath a residual plume of 7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates.  Since
forcing for ascent will be relatively shallow/weak along the cold
front, convective initiation will rely on strong surface
heating/mixing to eliminate convective inhibition, which is somewhat
more probable from KS into northern MO.  A few multicell clusters
are expected along the front, with the strong buoyancy supporting a
marginal hail threat, and steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg favoring isolated severe outflow gusts for a few
hours this evening.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/21/2022