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Mesoscale Discussion 1226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...Western ND and far northwest SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 192049Z - 192315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and locally severe gusts will
increase across western ND and far northwest SD between 23-01Z. A
watch will likely be needed at some point downstream of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 391.

DISCUSSION...In response to increasing large-scale ascent at the
nose of a midlevel jet streak impinging on the northern High Plains
(per water vapor imagery), surface observations depict a
consolidating surface low near Mountrail County, ND. While RAP
forecast soundings show lingering convective inhibition in the
vicinity of the surface low, continued diurnal heating of the
sheltered boundary-layer air (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) could
support isolated convective initiation over northwest ND during the
next few hours. Northerly surface winds beneath strong/deep
south-southwesterly flow will result in an elongated hodograph
supportive of supercell structures and an attendant risk of large
hail and severe gusts. However, large uncertainty remains owing to
the lingering convective inhibition and cloud coverage.

Later into the evening hours, current thinking is that supercells
and bowing segments capable of large hail and damaging winds will
spread northeastward from parts of eastern MT into western ND and
far northwest SD. Upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints and continued
diurnal destabilization should support the maintenance of this
activity given 40-50 kt of effective shear. Ultimately, a watch will
eventually be needed for parts of the area (downstream of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 391), though timing remains unclear owing to
lingering uncertainty regarding convective evolution north of the
surface low.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON   45430249 45140349 45150396 45880398 46680402 47990411
            48530389 48900345 49080279 49140179 49010102 48110104
            46360196 45430249