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Mesoscale Discussion 1224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern WY...southeast MT...far
southwest ND...and far northwest SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 191807Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm risk will increase across portions
of northern WY into southeast MT between 19-21Z. The primary
concerns will be large to very large hail and severe gusts. A watch
will likely be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations show a modest strengthening of
upslope flow over parts of northern WY, where filtered diurnal
diurnal heating amid lower/middle 50s dewpoints is resulting in an
expanding/generally shallow boundary-layer cumulus field. As height
falls acco*panying a midlevel speed maximum continue to overspread
northern WY into southeast MT, convection should develop over the
Big Horns and spread northeastward into the late afternoon hours. 

Steep midlevel lapse rates and long/straight hodographs
characterized by 50-60 kt of effective shear will support organized
convective structures including supercells capable of large to very
large hail. With time, convection should evolve northeastward into
richer boundary-layer moisture, and severe winds along with the
potential for a couple tornadoes will increase with any bowing
segments or longer-lived supercells. A watch will likely be needed
for parts of the area this afternoon.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   43590795 43960837 44500879 44910893 45400890 46020834
            46630736 46910602 47050459 46760387 46090348 45350347
            44580437 44240499 43640675 43590795