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Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern UT...western CO...and southwest WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191702Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms capable of large hail
and locally severe gusts will spread northward across parts of the
eastern Great Basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Watch
issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...As a midlevel speed maximum and acco*panying dry slot
continue overspreading parts of the eastern Great Basin and central
Rockies, pockets of diurnal heating and upslope flow amid the
strengthening large-scale ascent should support an uptick in
convective development through the afternoon hours. While buoyancy
will remain somewhat limited over the area, strong/deep
south-southwesterly flow will contribute to long/straight
hodographs, which co*bined with steep midlevel lapse rates could
support a few instances of large hail. In addition, storm splits and
eventual convective clustering could yield locally severe gusts with
any upscale-grown clusters as they spread northward through the
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected owing to the marginal and
localized nature of the threat.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   38020697 37510758 37510897 38420976 38981030 39971026
            41151004 41590984 42320946 42500833 42360746 41370696
            38020697