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Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...north-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191640Z - 191845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Localized 50-60 mph gusts yielding pockets of wind damage
and marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon with the
stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a small cluster of
thunderstorms developing over the north-central part of the FL
Peninsula during the midday.  Surface observations show temperatures
have warmed to near 90 deg F with mid 70s dewpoints.  RAP forecast
soundings show a very unstable (3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weakly capped
airmass continuing to erode.  The KMCO-TDWR VAD shows 20-kt
northeasterlies around 5 km.  This relative enhancement in flow
co*pared to the remaining vertical wind profile indicates storm
motion/propagation will favor a slow northeast-to-southwest
direction.  The considerable PW (1.7 inches) with steep 0-2 km lapse
rates will support water loading with the more intense cores and the
isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts.  Marginally severe
hail could also acco*pany the strongest thunderstorms.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/19/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27948209 29148261 29378229 29308158 28878108 28238091
            27868117 27768172 27948209