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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MT AND
WESTERN ND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple long-tracked supercells, potentially producing significant
severe hail and wind, will most likely occur centered on southeast
Montana into western North Dakota from late afternoon through this
evening.

...Southeast MT/northeast WY/western ND...
Basal shortwave impulse embedded within the amplified western
mid-upper trough should eject from the Great Basin north-northeast
towards the northern Rockies. Large-scale ascent tied to this wave
has supported scattered thunderstorms ongoing from eastern UT into
western WY, and will reach the Big Horns later this afternoon.
Primary severe potential will emanate out of this latter development
as post-frontal low-level upslope flow persists and cloud breaks aid
in weak surface-based buoyancy. 12Z guidance does differ appreciably
with the degree of destabilization, as well as the degree of
effective bulk shear with the NAM appearing less environmentally
favorable than the RAP. Ongoing cloud coverage and lack of wind
profiler data in the genesis corridor for supercells further lowers
confidence. Nevertheless, ARW-based hr** guidance remains insistent
on simulating at least a couple long-track supercells spreading
northeast off the Big Horns. MLCAPE in western ND will be
co*paratively larger in this portion of the post-frontal regime
owing to 60s surface dew points west of the surface cyclone drifting
east into central ND. This suggests that any established supercells
should be sustained into western ND before eventually beco*ing
undercut with time later tonight as the front accelerates southeast.
Significant severe hail and wind still appears possible.
 
...Eastern Great Basin to western/central SD...
Eastward progress of the Great Basin trough will bring stronger
mid-level flow farther east co*pared to previous days. Despite
widespread clouds to slow surface heating over most of the Rockies,
long/straight hodographs could support some organized storm
structures within the monsoonal moisture plume from the Four Corners
Area north into WY. A few strong-severe outflow gusts and isolated
marginally severe hail are the main hazards.

Farther northeast into central SD, mid-level flow will be weaker,
but greater boundary-layer heating and much deeper inverted-v
profiles will favor a few strong-severe outflow gusts with
high-based storm clusters late this afternoon into the evening along
a surface trough.

...FL Peninsula...
Another day of largely diurnal convection is expected, with
scattered thunderstorm development focused by a weak surface front
drifting south in north FL, and sea breeze circulations farther
south. Weak northeasterly mid-level flow suggests that pulse to
loosely organized multicell clusters will spread southwestward this
afternoon. Slightly weaker mid-level lapse rates relative to
yesterday should hold MLCAPE to around 2500-3000 J/kg. Localized
damaging winds from wet microbursts and small to marginally severe
hail will be possible.

..Grams/Weinman.. 06/19/2022