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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MT...MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWEST MN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
possible from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and into
the Upper Midwest on Monday.

...Northern Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity...

An upper ridge will be centered from western Ontario to the mid-MS
Valley on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the northern
Rockies/Great Basin will lift northeast into the northern Plains. At
the surface, low pressure over Manitoba will spread east toward
James Bay by Tuesday morning. A trailing cold front attendant to the
low is forecast to extend across the western Dakotas during the
morning, and spread southeast across the northern Plains and NE into
the Upper Midwest through the forecast period. Ahead of the front, a
very moist airmass will be in place with mid/upper 60s F to low 70s
F dewpoints from the eastern Dakotas/NE into IA/MN/WI. Some modest
boundary-layer moisture will remain behind the front across the
western Dakotas into eastern MT, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to
near 60 F co*mon. 

Strong heating and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid a very
moist environment east of the cold front will result in strong
destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE values from 2000-4000 J/kg are
expected. Strong deep-layer flow will be offset to the west of the
best instability and boundary-layer moisture. However, forecast
soundings still indicate 25-35 kt effective bulk shear magnitudes
capable of supporting brief supercells and organized bows/clusters.
Steep low-level lapse rates and a mixed boundary-layer to around 850
mb co*bined with PW values around 1.5-1.75 inches will support
strong outflow winds. If any clusters can beco*e organized through
outflow interactions/cold pool development, forward propagating bows
could bring a greater risk of damaging wind swaths. 

Behind the front, stronger height falls and cooling aloft will
overspread eastern MT into the western Dakotas. A 500 mb speed max
associated with the ejecting midlevel trough also will overspread
this area. While boundary-layer moisture will be more modest
co*pared to further east, and temperatures cooler, modest
destabilization is still expected. Stronger vertical shear will also
aid in the development of organized high-based supercells.
Elongated, straight hodographs with 35-45 kt effective bulk shear
and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest large hail
and strong gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/19/2022