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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH...

The forecast remains largely on track with some expansion to the
Critical risk area into northern AZ where morning observations show
very dry upstream conditions and guidance has trended towards higher
probability of sustained critical conditions this afternoon. The
wind/RH forecast outlined in the previous discussion (below) for
both AZ and UT remains valid.

...Thunderstorms...
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across northern/northeast UT are
expected to gradually exit the region by 18-20 UTC, followed by
several hours of dry/windy conditions. MRMS rainfall rate estimates
suggests that the training cells are producing wetting rainfall,
which will modulate the fire weather threat to a degree this
afternoon. However, the overall risk assessment remains unchanged
given the narrow/confined nature of the precipitation and the
potential for hold over fires from lightning strikes on the
periphery of the rain swaths. Additional isolated thunderstorms are
likely across northeast AZ and northwest UT this afternoon, and may
produce a few dry lightning strikes. However, forecast soundings and
hi-res guidance suggest wetting rainfall is probable with most
storms. 

...Central High Plains...
Minor adjustments were also made to the central High Plains Elevated
risk area where winds area already sustained near 20 mph with gusts
above 30 mph. Such conditions will likely persist into the afternoon
hours as RH (currently in the 30-35% range) continues to fall to
20-25%.

..Moore.. 06/19/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough within the Great Basin will continue to
slowly shift eastward before beginning to lift northeast late today.
A surface boundary will move slowly through Utah into western
Colorado. Within the northern Plains, a surface low will move
northeast and stronger flow approaching the Divide will help to
deepen a lee trough stretching into the central High Plains.

...Utah/Arizona...
Strong mid-level winds and an enhanced surface pressure gradient
near the boundary will promote 20-25 mph sustained winds from
northern Arizona into parts of southern/eastern Utah. RH could once
again fall into the single digits. RH should be lower in western
Utah with some increase with eastward extent. Even with some
uncertainty in RH in eastern Utah due to some lingering moisture and
potential cloud cover, values less than 15% are expected for a few
hours along with the strong winds.

...Central High Plains...
With lee trough to the west and a surface high to the east, surface
winds of 15-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. With continued
moisture return into the area and increasing cloud cover during the
day, RH may only fall to near 20% for most locations. An elevated
fire weather threat is expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...