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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR MISSING GRAPHICAL DESCRIPTION AND INCORRECT MARGINAL
GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts
are possible from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and
into the Upper Midwest on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Expansive upper ridging is forecast to be in place from the MS
Valley into western Ontario early Monday morning, with upper
troughing anticipated to its west over the western CONUS and to its
east off the East Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move
within the western CONUS upper trough, progressing northeastward
across the central Rockies and into the northern/central Plains and
Upper Midwest. This shortwave will be acco*panied by enhanced
mid-level southwesterly flow, which will spread into the
northern/central Plains during the afternoon and into the Upper
Midwest late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

Thunderstorms are anticipated from the northern Rockies into the
Upper Midwest as this shortwave progresses through the region, with
some severe thunderstorms possible (discussed in more detail below).

...Eastern Dakotas/Upper Midwest...
Evolution of this shortwave will encourage the development of an
eastward-surging cold front, which is expected to promote
thunderstorm development as it interacts with the warm, moist, and
strongly unstable air mass over the central/northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Mid 60s dewpoints could be in place as far west as
central NE, with low 70s over MN (and perhaps northern IA). This
area will be east of the stronger flow aloft, but very strong
buoyancy should still support the development of intense updrafts
capable of isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty
regarding severe storm coverage precludes higher probabilities with
this outlook.

...Northern High Plains into Western/Central Dakotas...
Modest buoyancy is expected to remain in place over the northern
High Plains and western Dakotas, to the west of the surface front
mentioned above. This region will be closer to the primary upper
trough, and associated height falls. Strong mid-level flow and
cooler mid-level temperatures are also expected over this area. As a
result, isolated to widely scattered storms may develop during the
late afternoon/early evening. Strong mid and upper flow will
contribute to moderate to strong bulk shear, and the potential for a
few more organized storms capable of damaging wind gust and/or hail.
Like the area farther east, uncertainty regarding severe storm
coverage precludes higher probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 06/19/2022