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Mesoscale Discussion 1217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of southwest and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389...

Valid 181826Z - 182100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 389
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along
sea breeze boundaries this afternoon. Sporadic large hail and
locally severe gusts are the main concerns. The severe risk will
gradually increase from north to south through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A line of cumulus continues to deepen along the east
coast sea breeze this afternoon, especially across parts of
Miami-Dade County where initial convective initiation is evident.
Cumulus is also deepening along the Gulf Coast, and isolated
convective development is occurring from Manatee County to Lee
County. As strong diurnal heating over the interior continues to
reinforce the sea breeze circulations, isolated to widely scattered
convective development should continue along these boundaries.
Seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moist/deeply-mixed
boundary layer should support robust pulse updrafts initially
capable of sporadic large hail and possibly strong to locally severe
downbursts. With time, congealing cold pools could favor an
increasing risk of damaging gusts with any upscale-grown clusters.

While the severe risk may be rather isolated along the sea breeze
boundaries, the risk will gradually increase as convective outflow
over central Florida spreads southward into the increasingly
unstable airmass.

..Weinman.. 06/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   25668131 25888179 26718232 27428274 27718223 27228186
            26488108 26498070 27018038 27018003 26428003 25948012
            25618023 25378030 25178052 25088088 25408117 25668131