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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN UTAH...

The main forecast update is to introduce an isolated
dry-thunderstorm risk area for far northern AZ into central UT. Cold
temperatures aloft were sampled in the 12 UTC VEF and SLC soundings
atop very dry conditions in the low levels. Latest RAP analyses show
PWAT values are between 0.25-0.5 inches over central UT on the
western periphery of a northward advancing moist plume over the Four
Corners region. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be very
isolated given meager mid-level moisture, but CAM forecast soundings
hint that the observed cold air aloft may provide adequate
instability for weak, fast-moving thunderstorms that will pose a
threat for dry lightning and strong outflow winds. 

The wind/RH-driven fire weather forecast remains on track with only
minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in
latest guidance. Details outlined in the previous discussion (below)
remain valid.

..Moore.. 06/18/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022/

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper-level trough will slowly move eastward through
the Great Basin today. Strong mid-level winds will continue across
central and eastern portions of the Basin, though some weakening is
expected during the day. A weaker surface trough than on Friday is
expected near the Nevada/Utah border. Farther east, a modest lee
trough in the central High Plains will develop and promote breezy,
dry southerly return flow.

...Great Basin...
Another day of widespread critical fire weather is expected,
particularly for eastern Nevada into western Utah. Winds of 20-25
mph will be co*mon in these areas. Some locations could experience
30-35 mph winds, but this should be more spatially limited than on
Friday. RH values from the single digits to around 20% are possible
during the afternoon. In eastern Utah, the winds could reach 20 mph.
However, there is greater potential for cloud cover and moisture
return here and RH should be somewhat higher as a result.

...Central High Plains...
Dry southerly return flow is expected as the lee trough deepens.
Winds of 15-20 mph are possible, though some areas of 20+ mph are
not out of the question. RH values may dip to near 15% locally, but
most locations will see values around 20%. Marginal fuels will also
mitigate greater fire weather concerns.

...Thunderstorms...
Moisture return around the mid-level anticyclone will continue
today. Thunderstorms are possible within the Southwest into the
central Rockies and perhaps the far eastern Great Basin. Increasing
PWAT values as well as greater storm coverage due to the forcing
from the approaching trough should limit the potential for dry
thunderstorms.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...