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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind risk will continue for a few more hours across
portions of the eastern Carolinas and southern/eastern Georgia.  
Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible across a portion of
eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming this evening.  Finally,
isolated severe storms will continue across the northwest Montana
vicinity into the overnight hours.

...Eastern Carolinas and southern/eastern Georgia...
A broken/co*plex line of strong/locally severe storms continues
moving east-southeastward across the eastern Carolinas and adjacent
parts of southern and eastern Georgia.  

Despite modest (at or below 25 kt) northwesterly flow aloft, a very
moist-unstable airmass ahead of the convection suggests that
convective intensity will be maintained for at least a few more
hours, with storms eventually/gradually moving offshore later this
evening.

Until then, locally damaging winds gusts -- and possibly hail --
will remain possible with stronger segments of the convective band
this evening.

...Northern High Plains...
Isolated strong/severe storms persist at this time across portions
of far southeastern Montana and into parts of eastern Wyoming, where
moderate instability is indicated in the vicinity of a
north-northwest to south-southeast surface front.  Low-level
southeasterlies near and north of this front, beneath moderate
mid-level southwesterlies, is providing ample shear for organized
storms, but capping -- as indicated by area 00Z RAOBs -- across this
region will continue to hinder more widespread severe risk.  Storms
should gradually diminish with time through the evening.

...Northwestern Montana vicinity...
A geographically confined corridor of moderate instability is
indicated across northwestern Montana early this evening, supported
by a moist boundary layer (surface dewpoint hovering near 60 at
Kalispell) in the vicinity of a surface low across this area.

As a series of mid-level cyclonic disturbances move northward
toward/across this area within a fast belt of southerly flow ahead
of the elongated West Coast upper low, thunderstorms will continue
across this area, though with a tendency to shift northward across
the international border with time.  Until then, isolated severe
storms -- including a supercell moving northeastward toward Cut Bank
-- will continue to pose risk for hail and damaging wind gusts
locally.

..Goss.. 06/18/2022