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Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas into the western Tennessee
vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111754Z - 111930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of organized -- but elevated -- storms moving
toward the middle Mississippi Valley of northeastern
Arkansas/western Tennessee may produce small hail and gusty winds,
but will likely not require WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a fairly well-organized band of
storms moving across northeastern Arkansas toward western Tennessee.
Despite the linear organization indicated by radar, convection
remains elevated atop a surface-based layer that remains weakly
stable up to about 1.5km.  As such, convection has remained
sub-severe, and expect while gusty winds and small hail will be
possible, any severe potential should remain low as storms advance
eastward/east-southeastward affecting areas near and north of
Memphis over the next hour or so.

..Goss/Thompson.. 04/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35429109 35929033 36338946 36148842 35538836 34788979
            34989090 35429109