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Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Wyoming into far southeast
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 172025Z - 172300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm potential should gradually increase
across parts of northeast Wyoming into southeast Montana through the
afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong to locally severe gusts
will be the main concerns. Trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection will
continue spreading/developing northward off the higher terrain
across parts of eastern Wyoming this afternoon. As the boundary
layer continues to deepen beneath a modest increase in midlevel
moisture (per water vapor imagery), 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear
and steep midlevel lapse rates should support a few organized
updrafts capable of large hail and strong to locally severe gusts.
While low-level convergence should continue strengthening in the
vicinity of a lee trough, generally weak large-scale ascent over the
area casts uncertainty on the overall coverage of strong to severe
storms. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch could
eventually be needed for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   42350613 43200633 43970643 44650636 45260622 45570599
            45650551 45630501 45470471 45070462 44520464 43080456
            42520470 42270506 42230555 42350613