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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
parts of the Ozark Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf Coast, and
the Florida Peninsula. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main
hazards with these storms.

...Synopsis and Discussion...

A highly amplified upper ridge will be centered from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba to the KS/MO border. To either side of the
upper ridge, an upper trough will be in place across the western
U.S. and the northeastern U.S. These features will shift slightly
eastward during the period. 

At the surface, high pressure centered near the upper Great Lakes
vicinity will develop southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
South of the surface high, a very moist and hot airmass will be in
place from the Ozarks/southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and
FL/GA. As the surface high develops southward, a front will also
push southward. The front, co*bined with strong
heating/destabilization, will support scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development from the Ozarks vicinity to the central
Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula. Weak shear will limit
organization, but high PW values, steep low-level lapse rates and
strong instability will support water loaded downdrafts capable of
sporadic strong gusts. The Marginal risk area has been adjusted
across parts of eastern OK/AR to the central Gulf Coast to account
for the forecast position and progression of the front in latest
ensemble and deterministic guidance.

Enhanced south/southwesterly mid/upper level flow will overspread
portions of the Southwest to the northern Rockies. Much of the
better monsoonal moisture, and resulting instability, will reside
offset to the east from the strong flow aloft. However, a small area
across northwest MT near the international border may see better
overlap of midlevel moisture and stronger flow aloft. A strong storm
or two could develop and produce gusty winds and hail before
crossing the border into Canada. However, uncertainty in storm
coverage will preclude Marginal risk probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2022