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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that an expansive upper
ridge will be centered over the Lower MS Valley early Monday
morning, with an upper trough farther west over the northern
Rockies. This upper trough is then forecast to eject northeastward
through the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge on D4/Monday,
before continuing eastward across southern Saskatchewan and Ontario
on D5/Tuesday. Some dampening of the northern periphery of upper
ridge is anticipated as the shortwave trough moves through, but it
should still remain centered over the Lower MS Valley. Beginning on
D6/Wednesday, the upper ridging is expected to build westward, and
it will likely cover much of the southern third of the CONUS by
D8/Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on D4/Monday ahead of the ejecting shortwave. Strong
buoyancy will likely be in place, but the stronger mid-level will be
displaced west of the thunderstorms, casting some doubt on severe
thunderstorm coverage. This uncertainty precludes introducing an
outlook area with this forecast.

Some severe potential will persist through the remainder of the week
as subtle shortwave troughs move through the northern periphery of
the ridge, but predictability of these subtle waves is low.