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Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...far northeast IA/southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151618Z - 151745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms tracking northeast into
west-central and central WI through early afternoon may pose a
threat for gusty winds and hail. Watch issuance is uncertain in the
short term.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is tracking
northeast around 40-45 kt across northeast IA/southeast MN late this
morning. This activity is occurring on the nose of a 25-30 kt
southwesterly low level jet and along the northern edge of an
instability gradient. The downstream airmass across WI is quickly
warming into the mid-80s amid upper 60s surface dewpoints and rapid
destabilization is expected into the afternoon hours. The current
track of convection may remain to the cool side of the surface
boundary draped southwest to northeast across central WI. This may
limit overall severe potential to a marginal hail and locally gusty
wind threat. However, if convection can beco*e surface based with
eastward extent, greater severe potential (including damaging gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two) could develop. Convective trends will
be monitored and a watch could beco*e necessary if surface-based
evolution beco*es evident. 

Additional severe storms are expected later this afternoon and an
upgrade to a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) will be included with the
1630z convective outlook.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   43269091 43219147 43129231 43149271 43269283 43509273
            44289141 44819030 44988992 44948935 44828894 44528875
            44078882 43708915 43419010 43269091