Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of
the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Several tornadoes, large to
very large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of the
tornadoes could be strong.

...Upper Midwest...
Morning surface analysis shows a precipitation-reinforced boundary
extending from central IA into WI.  This boundary will move only
slightly northward this afternoon as a strong shortwave trough
currently over CO approaches.  Increasing low-level winds and
cyclogenesis along the boundary will lead to thunderstorm
development by mid-afternoon from western WI into northeast IA. 
High and mid clouds will limit heating somewhat.  However, dewpoints
in the lower 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE
values of 3000+ J/kg.  Strong deep-layer shear and large hodographs
will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few
tornadoes (some strong) during the first several hours of the event.
 It is not clear how long activity will remain discrete before
upscale organization occurs, with an increasing risk of damaging
winds.  Storms will move into Lower MI after dark, with a continued
risk of locally damaging wind gusts.  

...Southeast States...
A hot and humid low-level air mass will be present today from the
Carolinas southwestward into MS/AL, with widespread temperatures in
the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  This will
result in MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates throughout the region.  The details of the timing and location
of convective development is uncertain this morning, but at least
isolated thunderstorms are expected throughout the area. 
Sufficiently strong northeasterly flow aloft will aid in
southwestward-propagating clusters capable of strong/damaging wind
gusts.

..Hart/Mosier.. 06/15/2022